Kuo: Apple Intelligence Unlikely to Increase iPhone 16 Sales
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Apple industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says that Apple has not increased iPhone 16 orders, despite reports claiming Apple Intelligence will drive sales of the upcoming handset lineup. Kuo points to recent earnings reports from Apple suppliers Largan and TSMC as evidence of his claims.
Although there have been rumors of increased orders for iPhone 16 orders from time to time after WWDC, recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan) have hinted that the iPhone 16 orders may not have increased.
1. TSMC: We did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.
2. Largan: Orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year.
As reported by Mactrast, Kuo believes that Apple’s iPhone 16 orders for the second half of this year are approximately 87 million units, which is well below the 91 million iPhone 15 units ordered by Apple in 2023.
Kuo said that although certain suppliers may have been asked to increase production, the increase may be related to “specific reasons within individual industries or components.”
He indicates that many observers’ expectations that Apple Intelligence will drive increased iPhone 16 sales “may be too optimistic” as the feature will only be available in US English.
The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.
Apple has not yet established an AI deal to bring Apple Intelligence to Chinese consumers, and the feature will also not be coming to the European Union (EU) at launch. As iDrop News reported earlier this month, Apple has clarified that the Apple Intelligence would not be launching in the EU any time soon due to the “regulatory uncertainties” in that region.
A Bloomberg report earlier this month indicated that Apple was expecting the Apple Intelligence features in iOS 18 to increase iPhone shipments by 10% in 2024. This is because Apple Intelligence requires an iPhone 15 Pro or later, meaning iPhone users with older models will need to upgrade to one of the devices in the iPhone 16 lineup to enjoy the new AI features.
Apple Intelligence will bring many fun and useful new features to the iPhone, including priority notifications and new writing tools for writing, proofreading, and summarizing text. The new Image Playground allows users to generate images using AI, while Genmoji will allow iPhone users to create custom emojis.
While Siri is also due for an overhaul, thanks to Apple Intelligence, any new Siri functionality won’t be ready for prime time until 2025. According to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, the new Siri features won’t even be ready for beta testing until January, possibly being included in the first iOS 18.4 beta that is expected to be seeded around that time.
As for the public release? If Apple follows its usual playbook, iOS 18.4 will likely be released sometime around March 2025. Apple traditionally releases point-4 releases of iOS in March. There have been a few exceptions to the rule, though, as iOS 14.4 was released in January 2021, iOS 11.4 was released in late May, and iOS 12.4 was a July update.
